Betting the Big Game

Vegas is filling up with Superbowl bettors. What to do?

I made a good bit of change wagering on sporting events. I'm one of the few on the web that year after year I won. Those of you with blogs know that those counters on the bottom of the page not only track general locations of the hits, but when someone from a major corporation hit your site "General Motors" or some other name will show up on the IP address. Me I was getting hits from The Department of Treasury in PA, GA, and Washington. Had me a loyal reader from the Attorney Generals office in Saint Louis and one from DC. These people don't watch you if you lose.

Those of you that had follow me those years. Know I won and they know my style. Last March I pounded the college basket tournament. Who else would win multiple thousands while risking a few hundred?

What my readers also knew is... I had disturbingly little knowledge of the sports. I knew more than your average Joe. I was more objective than most. But when you read the other blogs... Those people know everything. And they use all that knowledge to just barley keep their head above water - Which is something to brag about.

This is what I do know. Money flows in predictable streams. I know I'm not the only one that can predict the stream location and the direction of flow. So can the sportbooks.

There are a thousand and one cappers giving advise for this weeks Superbowl. Saints? Indy? I don't know. What I'm more interested in is how the money is played Thursday through Saturday. And then again Monday. This money will flow down pre dug canals. A line shift of 3 points won't change how the money is wager. So why not shift the lines?

Think about where all this new money is being played. There are plenty of eager folks ready to roll. On Monday 1/2 will think they are immortal. You may think your smart enough to outsmart the bookie on Sunday, but the smart money is playing the days around Sunday.

''Vegas Rules'' - Blackjack

Where the F is this casino called Vegas Rules? I always remember people dealing cards out in a neighborhood poker game calling for Vegas Rules.

Here are some Vegas Blackjack Rules:

The El Cortez and Four Queens pays 3:2 on single deck when you hit blackjack - Most others pay 6:5

Most pay 3:2 on a blackjack with Double Deck. The Golden Nugget pays 6:5

Four Queens allows Surrender - Most don't

The Vegas Club allows Doubling Down after splitting on any two cards. Most only allows doubling down after splitting if you pull a 11

Most allow you to double down on any two cards. Some only on 9, 10, 11

I'm actually with you

If you are reading this blog - You just might have a problem

The standard list of types of gamblers are:

• Social (recreational) Gamblers
  
• Frequent Gamblers (also called "heavy" or "serious" gambling
  
• Problem Gamblers
  
• Pathological Gamblers (also called Compulsive Gamblers)
  
• Professional Gambler
  
• Action Gambler
  
• Escape Gambler
  
• Antisocial Gambler
  
• Binge Gambler

For more information click Stop Gambling Now
http://www.stopgamblingnow.com/types_of_gamblers.htm

Dogcrap Green's gambling problem test:

• If you ever bought a lottery ticket - You are either one dumb mother fucker or you have a problem.
  
  
• If you ever played Keno - You are either one dumb mother fucker or you have a problem.
  
  
• If you believe that despite the fact that the house has a clean cut advantage over every signal dice combination that you can beat the house in craps because you have a system. You are ONE DUMB MOTHER FUCKER WITH A PROBLEM
  
  
• If you believe that three tails in a row increases the chance the next coin toss will be heads. You are ONE DUMB MOTHER FUCKER WITH A PROBLEM
  
  
• If you believe that three tails in a row increases the chance the next coin toss will be tails. You are ONE DUMB MOTHER FUCKER WITH A PROBLEM
  
  
• If you believe that you can beat the house by studying games of skill such as handicapping sports, going up against other less skill poker players, learning the real game of blackjack - GOOD FOR YOU. I'm here to help.
  

Seriously. If you need help. Get help. As long as you are doing your wagering with a neighborhood bookie, the neighborhood bar, a brick and mortar casino, or an off shore Internet site. You will find the level of ethics and morality of those taking your money to be extraordinary high. Talk to them and setup some guidelines. They will insure that you don't destroy yourself.

If on the other hand you are doing your gambling against a Democratic politician selling lottery or keno tickets with a house advantage of 60%.

• He has a budget crisis to "fix"
• By destroying your life he drives you to welfare and all welfare receiptans vote Democratic - You'll come to understand why power hungry Democrats strive to destroy society.

You are screwed and you do need. professional help.

PARIMUTUEL WAGERING

My first time blogging was with a horse handicapping blog. I am damn near the only person out there that was handicapping horses and winning. I had numerous people emailing me with request to handicap the races of their track and rarely let them down with poor picks. Years later I still get hits on my old blog with one of my post rank number one with google pertaining to the tote board. I don't bet on horse though anymore. The last straw for me was when Barbaro broke is leg and they didn't throw that cripple "farm" animal on the barbecue. Apparently most horse people are "animal lovers", because the day after I went off with my outrage that Barbaro wasn't slaughter and served to the people my readership to the old blog went from 500 plus loyal readers checking in everyday to two people.

So what. I still know how to pick and if you want to learn you'll read on.

First off the odds at the track are fucking insane. The only thing worse are the degenerate gamblers that buy lottery tickets from whore governor that are so morally bankrupt that they will exploit the poor to balance their "social justice" budget. If you want to play them - expect to be beaten down by the whores that own the race tracks. The payoff comparisons on the photo are comparing what a horse should pay to win based on the wager pool to what they actually pay to win after the house takes its cut. Only the government has the balls to give more horrific odds. and most casino games are 1/10 the race tracks take.

But if you are a fool you will try to beat the horse track. Here are some tips.

• First off I'm always amazed at how many people don't know and understand how to identify the horse with the average fastest speed. I go into this in far more detail with my old blog, but one key number to look at is the paces behind the LEAD horse. The times posted on the program are for the lead horse - NOT the horse your looking at. A horse runs 5 1/2 lengths in 1 second. So if the lead horse came in at 1:18.50 and your horse shows a finish of 8 lengths 1:18.50 the horse's actual time is about 1:19.95. The significance of this information is few and far between people can tell you what the horse is likely to run on a typical day, a good day, or a poor day. They just don't know. If the majority doesn't know and this knowledge is useful. Then it should be the cornerstone of your handicapping method.
  
  
• The next thing to look at is the tote board. Go for the best value bet for your horse. If your horse owns 25% of the win pool, 30% of the place pool, and 15% of the show pool. Bet the horse to show. If the horse owns15% of the win pool and 25% of the place pool, and 24% of the show pool. Bet the horse to win.
  
  
• And most important quick tip is - IN PARIMUTUEL WAGERING THE MAJORITY IS ALWAYS WRONG. If everyone at the track is wagering the "speed factors" The pool of money of the best speed factor horse will destroy the value of the wager. If they are all betting the purse winnings - same thing. If everyone is to totally focus on how to pick a horse based on medication - you know what I have to say. Every track has it's own personality and it is an evolving personality. You want a sound system of picking horses that is out of step with the track's prefer system. Adjust the weight you placed on the issues that control a horses likelihood of winning and compare it to the historical payouts.

The name of the game in horse racing is to seek out value despite the track whoring 30 to 40% from the betting pool. When you realize most races don't have a fair value horse - your on the right track. Be patient and wait. It is because of this cat and mouse game that I really love horse handicapping. I enjoy the constant need to update and change my handicapping programs. But I've had it with the whores.

Blackjack - Going up Against the Shoe

This is my third post on playing blackjack. Ideally you should first read "By the Book, then "The advance technique for the Double Deck", and finally this one.

The principles of when to bet large and when to bet small and how to play your hand are the same with the 4 and 6 deck shoe as they are with a double deck. The difference though of course is you have far more to keep track of.

Here are some simplifying techniques to keep you on course.

A shoe is much more difficult to shuffle than single or double deck. If two 3 of diamonds are displayed on the table - remember the cards before and after it. If two 6 of spades pop up a few hands later - remember the cards dealt before and after that. After the deck is shuffled if two 3 of diamonds and two 6 of spades pop up - Based on what you taught yourself from my "Advance playing techniques" post you know how to wager the next hand. The presents a different type of mental skill. When going up against the shoe you place more focus on memorization than actual "card counting" as done with the single and double deck. You wager based on how the tag cards are combining with one another to help identify the make up of the deck.

Now comes identifying the table to play at. Again you want the sharp seasons versus the shuffle deck. 20 years ago Vegas made this easy. The casinos cheated all the time. It's been over ten years since I witness this happen in Vegas. But many of you play your blackjack outside Nevada. Fact is nobody has more ethics than a Vegas casino owner, you might get lucky and go up against a cheating casino. If so keep your mouth shut and just take their money. Why would it be good news if your casino is a cheat? A skilled blackjack dealer or "Mechanic" understands human nature. When someone bets and lose they bet a little more. When someone bets and win they "manage" their money like the good books tells them and protect their profits.(Have I mention I don't believe in money management crapolla?). Anyways what the Mechanic will do after collecting the cards is make three hand movements. The first pulls the players cards apart by stretching them out to supposedly get a clear view prior to paying or collecting. The second is to swipe through the hands after money is settle. In this swipe all the 10s are pushed towards her discard pile. In the second swipe the remaining cards are swept to the discard pile. (or vise versus) And in fact the next hand dealt it will be vice versus. What she is doing is creating strong seasons. Knowing when the dry spell hits the player will keep upping his bets. A good mechanic can easily create a 5 hand losing streak. do this often and she will bust out the whale. But this is the table YOU WANT to sit at.

The mechanic makes your job easy. You will see the wet and dry seasons. You will know when to let your winnings roll and to tighten up on your loses. Just don't bet bigger than the whale their busting out.

Whores, Gamblers, Politicians and the Balls of Steel nobody has a use for

The love hate relationship between the government and the gaming industry will never end. with whores now running the political offices you should expect the philosophy of whoring more money from the people through creative methods as an answer to all budget problems.

Here are some interesting tidbits to keep in mind.

Las Vegas Slots has about a 1.5% house advantage

Las Vegas Sport Books have a 4.7% advantage for the dart thrower. Keep in mind first they post their fix odds and then the people decide what to bet. College basketball is a money loser for them. The NBA is a money loser for the house. Baseball all depends on the winning and losing streak of the 4 favorite teams. College football the house squeaks by on. And thank god for the idiot wagering on the NFL, or there would be no point for casinos to enter into the sports wagering business.

Downtown single and double deck blackjack casinos have about a .65% (that's right less than 1 percent) house advantage.

The Govenor of new Jersy needs money so Atlantic City improves the house odds - these casinos are hurting.

River Boats (don't blame them blame your governor's greed) try to make more money by increasing the odds against the palyer even more. These casinos are really huring.

Horse tracks demand a 33% or HIGHER house advantage per race. The horse track owners then approach the govenor with their balls of steal offer of "give us bailout money or we are closing shop because your citizens won't let us whore them out of 33% per race".

The whore Donald Trump took Atlantic City odds to Vegas (a town that doesn't whore the gamblers) and went bankrupt.

Here in Maryland whore Govenor O'Mally sought to bailout the 33% advantage horse industry with a slot bill to scam the Maryland residents with worse odds than most River Boats scams. The casinos knew he was too greedy and did not bid on the right to build slot houses.

The people need hope. The casinos need to lose money to make money. Losing is the key to profits. Before you waste a vote voting on a gambling bailout bill to whore money out of your state's residents, first ask yourself are they proposing to provide a good entertainment package for the people of your state or are they proposing to whore away money.

Whores die alone with nothing in their pockets.

If a buss load of senior citizens goes to the horse track and nobody wins. Nobody gets on that buss for the next senior trip. When a buss load of 60 senior citizens jumps on a bus in LA and goes to Las Vegas. That buss comes back to LA with 25 winners. Those 25 winners keep the bus full trip after trip after trip, because they provide hope for the people and long term profits for Nevada.

I voted against O'Mally's scam to whore Marylanders out of their money because I knew the people were smarter than he thought. The casinos knew it too. We now have legalize slots, but the Casinos refused to bid on the rights to operate the slots. The casino industry knew that if they went along with Governor O'Mally's plan to whore the people out of their money. They would just end up like a whore race track owner stuck paying the bills, the mortgage and taxes on an empty building.

Just because you believe in the right for a casino to exist does not mean you should vote for every money skimming scam dreamed up. If the Govenor's plan does not add value to the community it becomes nothing but a burden to society. Even if you live across the street from a Govenor's budget saving slot house, your better off flying to Las Vegas.