Back when my head had hair on it I went up to Vegas with my bookie. I never understood why he always went up there. He was under 21 and never cover the wagers at the sportbooks. Instead he always phoned in to his Nebraska connection what he could not handle. We hung out outside what was then the birth place of the sport wagering lines. THE STARDUST. The Stardust had a row of pay phones outside near the sports book entrance. Lined up by these phones would be about a dozen or so wise guys in there 60s to 80s with a young kid in his early twenties by his side. We watch as some of them sent their kid into the sports book and others didn't. And as each kid went into the Stardust my bookie then told which city was receiving the heavy bets. "I get it!!!" I understood why he hung out there every weekend.
The big question is can the money flow be predicted?
Lets pretend there are 100 people in a sportsbook and the Earthworms are playing the Maggots. Based on the background of the people there may be 12 people that may or may not bet on the Earthworms and 14 people that may or may not bet on the Maggots but what these people won't do is bet on the other team. There also may be 20 people that are up for the year betting on the Maggots, but lost last week betting the Maggots. And 30 people that are down for the year betting on the Earthworms, but won last week betting the Earthworms.
So who would you bet on? Or what wager did Vegas take as to how you would be betting?
There are eight ways to handicap a game.
1) Crunch the numbers and see who is mathematically superior. (Being an old horse handicapper this is my fundamental technique).
2) Understand that Las Vegas Sports Consultants, Inc. (the birth place of many sporting lines) not only handicaps the sport, but also handicaps the gamblers. All games have the lines shifted a few points knowing in advance that people are human and will react as a mob in predictable fashion to the line. (After I fundamentally handicap 7 or so games using the number crunching technique. I look for a pattern in how the lines appear to be shifted, and never fight the patten on who I select).
3) Have a good grasp of the teams and an ability to conceptually estimate a games outcome. (Everyone claims this is them).
4) A combination of two of the above. (Number crunchers are rarely conceptual handicappers and vice versus).
5) Knowing the "Skinny, or angle". I have no insight info, or even enough interest in sports to know the latest angle. These people can make money by chasing a rumor before it hits the mainstream media.
6)Give way to human nature and money management crapola theories. These people are Doom to Lose. (God bless these people. Without them the casinos wouldn't have the balls to post a line).
7) Toss a coin - You are far better off than the people in group 6 that are being out smarted by the odds maker.
8) Then there are the lazy Me's of the world. They think all they need to know is what side of the line has the largest number of people. There are services that claim to have this information. In my opinion, you are far better off second guess the direction of the line adjustment versus looking at the results. It is possible that the Las Vegas Sports Consultants over pushed a line and swing the crowds onto the winning side. And believe it or not Vegas wants the money of those hedging their lines just like they want everyone elses. All you have to do is beat out each style of bettor once a year - and you beat them all of all they got.
I like to check out various local radio stations in the Internet for team sentiment. Keep an eye on ticket sales. Check what the scalpers are asking for. Watch the win loses against the spread. Studying the stats - not to bet on them, but possibly against them. Trends... Watchout the strange thing is on a Monday or Thursday night football game. People are pulled into betting on a game in which they don't care about the teams. Guess what they use? Guess what you shouldn't do. I use to check flight out to Vegas. I counted the number of empty seats on various specif flights every Thursday. Not see easy to do that now since 9-11. I like knowing who is in Vegas for a convention. The week before is interesting too. It's the teaser week where everyone says "Imagine how much we would have won." Next thing you know their buddies are asking for favors before heading off to their convention.
Keep this in mind though. People tend to favor one method of wagering over the others. Some like dogs, others like the favors, some go for the home team, others go for the away team. Many like rank teams. And on and on. Because the wagers are often so heavily leverage, you only have to have a clean sweep of one side of these bets once a year to bust most people out and have all the gambler's money.
Don't think the odds of you losing 12 in a row are possible - GUESS AGAIN. You are going up against a free thinking human. Not random numbers. And for every 9 people that don't bet like me. One does. And the bastards at LVSC are gunning for me too!!!! Sometimes all the obvious bets will butcher you alive. But if you wager on parlays a 12 game losing streak is no worse than any other bad day. And as a parlay bettor I have them all the time. But the winning days make up for them.
